H.R. 4685 — ICBM Act

This section states congressional findings concerning (1) the projected $946 billion cost (average $95 billion annually, or 8.4% of total national defense costs) to sustain and modernize the U.S. nuclear arsenal over the 2025-2034 period; (2) cost overruns and delays in the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program, including a revised total cost estimate of $141 billion in constant 2020 dollars (81%, or $63 billion, above the 2020 baseline of $78 billion), a life-cycle cost previously estimated at $260 billion, a Nunn-McCurdy review, plans for new missile silos, and potential extension of Minuteman III ICBMs to 2050; (3) National Nuclear Security Administration costs of at least $14 billion for the W87-1 warhead and $18 billion for plutonium pit production; and (4) strategic risks of silo-based ICBMs, including vulnerability, "launch on warning" posture, false alarms, and sufficiency of the submarine leg of the nuclear triad.

This section declares it to be the policy of the United States that (1) the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program—intended to replace the Minuteman III ICBM—is significantly over budget and behind schedule as of enactment and should be paused and reevaluated for need and technical merit; (2) the operational life of the Minuteman III missile should be safely extended until at least 2050; and (3) investments in the Department of Education are a better use of taxpayer resources than continuing the Sentinel program.

This section directs the Secretary of Defense to transfer all Department of Defense funds appropriated for research, development, test, and evaluation of the Sentinel program (i.e., next-generation intercontinental ballistic missile to replace the Minuteman III)—and available for obligation as of enactment—to the Department of Education for part A of title I of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965 (i.e., statewide accountability systems, standards, and assessments). The section further directs the Secretary of Energy to transfer all funds appropriated to the National Nuclear Security Administration for the W87-1 warhead modification program (i.e., warhead development for the Sentinel missile)—and available for obligation as of enactment—to the same education program.

This section requires the Secretary of Defense, not later than 30 days after enactment, to contract with the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) for an independent study on extending the service life of Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)—the U.S. land-based leg of the nuclear triad currently planned for replacement by the Sentinel program—to 2050 or beyond. The study must incorporate input from technical experts while prohibiting participation by Air Force or Department of the Air Force personnel involved in the Sentinel program. The study must address 12 specified elements, including (1) a cost comparison through 2050 between extending Minuteman III and deploying Sentinel; (2) opportunities to incorporate resilience-enhancing technologies into Minuteman III that could apply to Sentinel; (3)–(5) analyses of service life estimation methods for Minuteman III motors, including risks and benefits of alternatives to destructive testing; (6) risks, benefits, and costs of configuring Trident II D5 submarine-launched ballistic missiles for Minuteman III silos; (7) impacts of reducing deployed ICBMs from 400 to 300 or fewer; (8) Columbia-class submarines' features against antisubmarine threats; (9) effects on Russian targeting decisions; (10) estimated U.S. strategic forces survivability against Russian counterforce strikes; (11) benefits, risks, and costs of using W-78 warheads versus W-87 life extension; and (12) submarine upload options to offset reduced ICBMs. NAS must submit the report to the Secretary not later than 180 days after enactment, and the Secretary must transmit it unclassified (with a possible classified annex) to the armed services, foreign relations/affairs, and appropriations committees of Congress not later than 210 days after enactment.