H.R. 8076 — PREDICT Act

This section establishes a new subchapter IV of chapter 131 of title 5, United States Code, prohibiting covered individuals from entering into, or offering to enter into, any agreement, contract, or transaction dependent on the occurrence, nonoccurrence, or extent of a specific political event during federal service. Covered individuals include Members of Congress and their spouses or dependent children; fiduciaries acting on their behalf; congressional officers and employees; the President and Vice President; political appointees; executive branch officers or employees above GS-15 or equivalent (including uniformed service members at O-7 or higher); and judicial officers and employees. (As background, chapter 131 generally addresses executive branch ethics, with supervising ethics offices designated for various federal personnel to enforce compliance.) The section further requires supervising ethics offices to issue interpretive guidance on undefined terms; imposes penalties directed by such offices consisting of a fee equal to 10% of the value of the violating agreement plus disgorgement of profits (payable to the Treasury); prohibits payment of penalties from sources such as the Members’ Representational Allowance, Senators’ Official Personnel and Office Expense Account, campaign contributions (as defined in 52 U.S.C. 30101(8)), or other federal salary or funds; and directs supervising ethics offices to publish descriptions of assessed fines, reasons, and results on public websites. (Thus, the provision effectively bans betting or speculating on political outcomes via prediction markets for these high-level officials and related persons, with enforcement through ethics offices and public transparency.)